It is totally possible!
Over the last few weeks, Joe Biden’s popularity for the 2020 presidential elections has seen a significant increase. A poll released by Washington Post and ABC News last Sunday has put his lead at 15 points, his first two-digit score so far.
Trump did exceptionally well in the 2016 presidential elections, but a lot has changed since then, and his status as a rookie in running a government has been further highlighted by the uncontrolled spread of COVID-19 in the US and the inability of his administration to tackle it.
However, a lot can happen in the three months before the election commences in November. Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s cancer has made a comeback, and a Supreme Court vacancy can change the whole game.
Here are some of the significant factors that can turn the presidential election game in favor of Trump.
An Upcoming Supreme Court Vacancy
The American public, as well as, the political analysts have been putting a lot of thought into how Trump managed to win the 2016 elections, but no one has paid the due attention to the most important institution of the government, the Supreme Court. After the death of Justice Antonin Scalia in February 2016, the Republicans in the Senate tried their best and succeeded in blocking the confirmation of Barack Obama’s nominee for the post.
With that said, a recent survey has revealed that 26 percent of Trump Voters said that the most notable factor in their decision of voting for Trump was the selection of the Supreme Court Justices. No matter if Justice Ginsburg leaves the seat or any other Justice will be replaced, this decision is going to be very critical in shaping the results of the upcoming elections.
There’s an expected likely-voter switch
So far, the polls carried out by various agencies have only taken into account the registered voters, and it is not possible to account for all the people who’ll actually be voting this November. As the election comes closer, the polls will be focused more on the likely voters, the people who are not only registered to vote but are actually going to vote in the upcoming elections.
An example of that is a Monmouth University poll from this week that showed Biden getting a 13-point lead from Trump. However, when adjusted for a high turnout, Biden’s lead came down to 10 points, and upon adjustment, for low turnout, it fell to only seven points. Another fact that also supports this concept is Clinton seemed to have a lead over Trump in the pre-election polls of 2016, but it actually turned out that the lead was caused only by the likely voter switch.
The entire political career of Joe Biden is full of blunders. Like he said that the black people voted for Trump in the previous election aren’t black. That’s not all; day after day, his statements continue to create controversies. Once he compared poor children with white children and said that both are equally bright and talented. He then tried to correct it by saying, “wealthy kids, black kids, Asian kids,” but that couldn’t undo what he had just said.
Biden has also not been campaigning for the upcoming election. Even though traditional campaigning is not possible due to COVID-19, he has not even shown up for news conferences and press releases.
All these things combined, give Trump a bit of an edge over Biden and can turn the election in his favor.
The Coronavirus Factor
It is true that the Trump administration has not performed well in dealing with coronavirus, but it was a completely novel thing in modern political history. While he has failed to tackle it the best way, people can lean in his favor for being able to handle it at all. Consequently, the upcoming elections can show really strange outcomes, maybe even stranger than the last election.